Almost the entire state of North Carolina is under a severe drought, while nearly a quarter of the state is under an extreme drought.
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We explained these drought classifications in a previous "Ask the Meteorologist."
How much rain would it take to end the drought?
At this point, it would take 10 to 11 inches of rain within a month to completely get rid of the drought.
That, alone, should tell you that it's going to take a long time before we can breathe a sigh of relief. After all, it's taken a long time for us to get into this rut.
I've actually had a few people come up to me and say, "Man, it's going to take a tropical storm, isn't it?"
I certainly hope that's not the case. Instead, let's take a look at a different weather feature that could potentially help us out.
I have no evidence that this feature will show up, but this is more of an optimistic and hopeful approach in the months ahead.
The upper-level low
When we talk about lows or low pressure systems, we're referring to storm systems.
An upper-level low is a unique feature that can happen in the months of May and June.
This comes as the harsher upper-level winds (the polar jet stream) retreat farther north. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure gets cut off from that flow.
Being cut off from those steering winds means that the low either stalls or meanders until something pushes it away.
When I was covering weather in Roanoke, Virginia, I saw a few of these develop in May and June of 2020.
If positioned just right, the counter-clockwise flow could bring in rounds of moisture out of the Gulf and Atlantic. That - in turn - could lead to several inches of rain within a span of a few days.
Is there any sign of relief?
In the near-term, we have the chance for scattered showers and storms late Saturday into Sunday morning.
While it's better than nothing, it likely won't do a ton toward alleviating the drought.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center releases monthly and seasonal outlooks. The one for May-July 2026 is somewhat encouraging.
Who knows? With El Niño developing, maybe we can start to get a more active storm track and more frequent rain chances in the months ahead.
That would certainly be nice.
Not to mention, El Niño leads to a reduced (not zero) chance of tropical systems.
In a perfect world, we'd get several storm systems without having to deal with a landfalling tropical system.